Ligue 1 | Gameweek 13
Nov 26, 2023 at 12pm UK
Allianz Riviera
We said: Nice 1-0 Toulouse
Forced to work without the suspended Dallinga and injured Aboukhlal, Toulouse's chances of breaching a near-impenetrable Nice backline are wafer-thin, and Martinez's men could learn a thing or two about rearguard mastery from their upcoming opponents.
For all of the hosts' remarkable work at the back, 13 goals at the correct end of the field is still the worst record in the top four, so only a solitary strike may separate the sides on Sunday as Nice extend their unbeaten record.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 56.16% . A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 19.9% .
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.67%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%) , while for a Toulouse win it was 0-1 (6.67%) . The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nice in this match.
Result Nice Draw Toulouse 56.16% ( 0.15) 23.94% ( -0.01) 19.9% ( -0.15)
Both teams to score 48.73% ( -0.2)
48.36% ( -0.15) 51.63% ( 0.16)
26.58% ( -0.13) 73.42% ( 0.14)
81.77% 18.23% ( 0)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 50.74% 49.26% ( 0)
59.59% ( -0.25) 40.41% ( 0.25)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 22.97% ( -0.23) 77.02% ( 0.23)
Nice 56.15%
Toulouse 19.9%
Draw 23.93%
Nice Draw Toulouse 1-0 @ 12.53% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 56.15% 1-1 @ 11.36% 0-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.83% Total : 23.93% 0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.26% Total : 19.9%
How you voted: Nice vs Toulouse
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rhs 2.0
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