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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.76%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 20.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Northampton Town |
55.76% ( 0) | 24.18% ( 0) | 20.06% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 48.27% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.63% ( -0.01) | 52.37% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.95% ( -0) | 74.05% ( 0) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.34% ( -0) | 18.66% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.02% ( -0) | 49.98% ( 0) |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.34% ( -0.01) | 40.66% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.75% ( -0.01) | 77.25% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Northampton Town |
1-0 @ 12.73% 2-0 @ 10.69% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.39% 4-0 @ 2.51% 3-2 @ 2.42% 4-1 @ 2.26% 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 55.76% | 1-1 @ 11.46% 0-0 @ 7.58% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 24.17% | 0-1 @ 6.83% 1-2 @ 5.16% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.07% 1-3 @ 1.55% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.24% Total : 20.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
> League One Full Table |