Sevilla will head to Russia on Tuesday night knowing that a victory over FC Krasnodar would guarantee themselves a spot in the knockout round of the Champions League.
The Europa League holders are currently second in Group E, six points clear of their third-placed opponents, and will be eyeing their third European win of the season at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
Match preview
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Krasnodar gave an excellent account of themselves in the reverse match in Seville earlier this month, taking a two-goal lead at Estadio Ramon before Sevilla responded to record a 3-2 win.
It was always going to be difficult for the Russian side to make an impression in the group, and they are currently third with just one point to show from their three matches, losing 4-0 at home to Chelsea before the defeat in Spain on November 4.
Finishing above Rennes and claiming a Europa League spot in the process would be a huge positive for the Bulls, though, considering that this is their first ever appearance in the group stages of the Champions League.
The Black-Greens had only played four European Cup matches before the start of this season and booked their spot in the group stages of the competition due to an impressive playoff win over PAOK.
Murad Musayev's side will enter this match off the back of a 1-0 win over Tambov in the league on Saturday, but a disappointing domestic campaign thus far has left them down in ninth spot in the table.
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Sevilla, meanwhile, will be looking to make it four straight victories in all competitions on Tuesday, booking their spot in the last-16 stage of the tournament in the process.
Level on points with Chelsea in Group E, last season's Europa League winners opened their 2020-21 Champions League challenge with a goalless draw at Chelsea before beating Rennes and Krasnodar on home soil.
Julen Lopetegui's side were far from their best in the early stages of the season - winning just one of their six matches in all competitions between October 4 and October 31 - but a positive November has seen them overcome Krasnodar, Osasuna and Celta Vigo in their last three.
Sevilla have actually qualified for the knockout round of the Champions League in all but one of their five participations, while they reached the quarter-finals of the competition in 2017-18.
The Spanish outfit have also been victorious in 18 of their last 33 Champions League fixtures but have won just one of their last nine games in Russia, suffering a 2-1 defeat to Krasnodar when they made the trip during the group stage of the 2018-19 Europa League.
FC Krasnodar Champions League form: LWWDLL
FC Krasnodar form (all competitions): LLLLLW
Sevilla Champions League form: WLDDWW
Sevilla form (all competitions): LWLWWW
Team News
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Krasnodar will be without Sergei Petrov for the remainder of the year with a hamstring problem, but Wanderson, Egor Sorokin and Igor Smolnikov have all overcome recent injuries and could be involved.
Marcus Berg was on the scoresheet in the reverse game in Seville, and the 34-year-old, who has seven goals in all competitions this season, should again lead the line.
There are also expected to be starts for Remy Cabella and Tonny Vilhena in midfield positions.
Sevilla will again be without the services of Carlos Fernandez and Yassine Bounou due to positive coronavirus tests, while Suso is still on the sidelines with a muscular problem.
The visitors also have a concern over Marcos Acuna, who had to be replaced in the first half against Celta on Saturday, while Jesus Navas is suspended due to his red card last time out.
Nemanja Gudelj could get the nod over Fernando as the holding midfielder, while Luuk de Jong and Munir El Haddadi are likely to join Lucas Ocampos in the final third of the field.
FC Krasnodar possible starting lineup:
Safonov; Ramirez, Martyovich, Kaio, Chernov; Gazinskiy, Vilhena; Olsson, Cabella, Sabua; Berg
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Vaclik; Escudero, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna; Rakitic, Gudelj, Jordan; Ocampos, De Jong, Munir
We say: FC Krasnodar 1-2 Sevilla
Krasnodar have only won one of their last seven matches in all competitions, suffering five defeats in the process, and it is therefore difficult to back them to triumph here. Sevilla, on the other hand, have found some form in recent weeks, and we fancy Lopetegui's side to collect all three points.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 37.3%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 36.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sevilla would win this match.
