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Hoffenheim logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 20
Jan 22, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Rhein-Neckar-Arena
Dortmund logo

Hoffenheim
2 - 3
Dortmund

Kramaric (45+1'), Rutter (77')
Rudy (66'), Dabour (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Braut Haaland (6'), Reus (58'), Raum (66' og.)
Hummels (49'), Bellingham (90+5')

Preview: Hoffenheim vs. Borussia Dortmund - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fourth meets second in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with Hoffenheim playing host to Borussia Dortmund at the PreZero Arena.

Both will be looking to bounce back from poor exits from the DFB-Pokal in midweek, in an encounter that promises to be thoroughly entertaining for the neutral.


Match preview

Hoffenheim players celebrate with teammates after Union Berlin's Timo Baumgartl scored an own goal on January 15, 2022© Reuters

Despite having won just once in their last five fixtures across all competitions, Hoffenheim head into the weekend on a relatively strong run of form.

Five wins and two draws in seven Bundesliga games, including four on the bounce, saw Sebastian Hoeness's side shoot up the Bundesliga table and into the mix for the Champions League places all of a sudden before the winter break, but that run has been halted ever so slightly over the past week.

A 2-1 defeat at Union Berlin in the Bundesliga last weekend was followed by a hugely disappointing 4-1 loss at home to Freiburg in the DFB-Pokal on Wednesday.

Die Kraichgauer were playing for a spot in the quarter-finals in midweek, but despite Andrej Kramaric netting his first goal in nine club appearances, they were comprehensively beaten thanks to their lack of clinical finishing in front of goal.

The clash in the capital last weekend was different though, as Hoffenheim instead created very little in the final third and were deservedly brushed aside by their fellow European hopefuls.

That loss leaves Saturday's hosts in fourth place heading into matchday 20, so despite the slip-ups over the last week, Hoffenheim remain well in the mix to earn themselves a shock Champions League spot come May, which would be an incredible achievement for a side many tipped to endure yet another dull mid-table campaign.

Borussia Dortmund's Thomas Meunier celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 14, 2022© Reuters

Meanwhile, Dortmund head to the PreZero Arena on Saturday hoping to put a DFB-Pokal exit of their own behind them.

Unlike their hosts though, who were pitted against a fellow Bundesliga side, BVB were instead knocked out by 2.Bundesliga leaders St Pauli, in a humiliating 2-1 defeat.

Marco Rose resisted the urge to rest some of his big names during their Bundesliga title challenge, but even with the likes of Mats Hummels, Marco Reus and Erling Braut Haaland all starting, Dortmund fell to the second-tier side and ended the defence of their DFB-Pokal trophy in the process.

The Black and Yellows will now return to Bundesliga action with their full focus on picking up three points at a time, with their destiny out of their hands due to Bayern Munich's six-point gap at the summit.

However, a potential turning point two weeks ago, when Bayern fell to a shock defeat at home to Borussia Monchengladbach, and Dortmund remarkably came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 at Eintracht Frankfurt later that weekend, meant the gap was cut from an initial nine prior to the winter break, to the current six.

Although the league leaders returned to winning ways with ease last weekend, Rose's side kept the pressure on by thumping this year's surprise package, Freiburg, by a 5-1 scoreline at Signal Iduna Park.

Haaland and Thomas Meunier each netted braces, and Mahmoud Dahoud netted the fifth in a devastatingly-clinical display from Dortmund, and Rose will be hoping for more of the same on Saturday, as his side look to cut Bayern's lead to just three points ahead of their trip to Hertha Berlin on Sunday.

Hoffenheim Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L

Hoffenheim form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L

Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L



Team News

Borussia Dortmund coach Marco Rose on January 18, 2022© Reuters

Hoffenheim's list of absentees remains a lengthy one ahead of the welcoming of Dortmund on Saturday, with as many as eight players set to miss out.

Robert Skov, Ermin Bicakcic, Mijat Gacinovic and Pavel Kaderabek are all sidelined through various injuries, whilst COVID-19 should see Marco John and Florian Grillitsch sit out as well.

Kasim Adams is suffering from a bout of flu so is not expected to feature, whilst Diadie Samassekou remains on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations.

As for the visitors, Emre Can and Dahoud are likely to sit out once more due to groin and back injuries respectively, meaning Axel Witsel will join Jude Bellingham and Julian Brandt in the centre of midfield again.

Spare goalkeepers Roman Burki and Luca Unbehaun are ruled out for another couple of weeks, and they are joined by the defensive duo of Marcel Schmelzer and Mateu Morey, as well as Giovanni Reyna.

Meunier started again in midweek despite doubts over the ankle injury he picked up in the win against Freiburg, whilst Youssoufa Moukoko returned from injury with a late cameo from the bench.

However, an unchanged side could be named by Rose despite the disappointing cup exit, meaning Donyell Malen will likely remain on the bench after failing to impress in his appearance from there on Tuesday.

Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Posch, Vogt, Richards; Akpoguma, Baumgartner, Geiger, Raum; Kramaric; Bebou, Rutter

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Guerreiro; Brandt, Witsel, Bellingham; Reus, Haaland, Hazard


SM words green background

We say: Hoffenheim 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

This clash looks set to be an entertaining one on Saturday, with both sides successful in front of goal in recent weeks, whilst remaining leaky at the other end of the pitch too.

Were this tie being played at Signal Iduna Park, we would be predicting a Dortmund win, but with BVB often slipping up on their travels, as well as Hoffenheim being an impressive outfit, we are going for a thrilling draw.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 46%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 31.31% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.75%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Hoffenheim vs Dortmund

Hoffenheim
21.3%
Draw
10.7%
Borussia Dortmund
68.0%
75
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Axel Witsel of Borussia Dortmund pictured in October 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen26224066184870
2Bayern MunichBayern26193478314760
3Stuttgart26182660312956
4Borussia DortmundDortmund26148453322150
5RB Leipzig26154760322849
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt26101064235740
7Augsburg269894342135
8Hoffenheim2696114450-633
9Freiburg2696113648-1233
10Werder Bremen2686123541-630
11Heidenheim2678113544-929
12Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach26610104650-428
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2684142542-1728
14Wolfsburg2667133144-1325
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum26510113054-2425
16Mainz 05Mainz26310132246-2419
17FC Koln2639142047-2718
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2627172665-3913


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