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Cardiff City logo
Championship | Gameweek 34
Mar 2, 2021 at 7pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Derby logo

Cardiff
4 - 0
Derby

Bacuna (22', 56'), Moore (48'), Vaulks (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Cardiff City vs. Derby County - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Cardiff City will be looking to regain their place in the playoffs when they host Derby County on Tuesday evening.

The Bluebirds and the Rams both played out 1-1 draws in their last fixtures to continue their positive runs of form.


Match preview

Mick McCarthy in charge of Cardiff City in February 2021© Reuters

Cardiff's six-match winning streak may have come to an end against Middlesbrough on Saturday, but a point at the Riverside can be considered a positive result.

Sean Morrison headed the Bluebirds in front before half time against the run of play, but Paddy McNair struck in the final 10 minutes to ensure it was spoils shared.

Having climbed into the top six with victory over Bournemouth earlier in the week, Cardiff dropped below the Cherries and surprise package Barnsley with the draw.

However, Mick McCarthy's men are only two points off Bournemouth and a further two points behind fifth-placed Reading, the latter of whom they still have to face.

Cardiff remain unbeaten since McCarthy took over from Neil Harris in January, winning six and drawing three, compared to five league losses on the spin before he was appointed.

Derby County's Colin Kazim-Richards celebrates scoring their first goal against Nottingham Forest in the Championship on February 26, 2021© Reuters

Derby have also turned their season around of late under rookie boss Wayne Rooney, moving up to 18th and nine points above the relegation zone with a run of two losses in nine.

The Rams have won six of those matches, though they had to settle for a point against East Midlands rivals Nottingham Forest last time out.

That was ultimately a positive result, though, as County trailed to James Garner's strike for 50 minutes before Colin Kazim-Richards fired home a thunderous volley.

Rooney's charges have taken 18 points on their travels this term, which is a similar record to Cardiff at home, the Bluebirds having taken 21 points from a game more.

However, Derby have won just one of their last six meetings with City in the Championship, most recently playing out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture four months ago.

Cardiff City Championship form: WWWWWD

Derby County Championship form: LWWLWD


Team News

Cardiff City's Harry Wilson celebrates scoring with teammates against Barnsley on November 3, 2020© Reuters

McCarthy named an unchanged starting lineup for the trip to Middlesbrough, but the experienced coach may be tempted to change things around during this gruelling run of games.

Joe Ralls made his return from injury as a second-half substitute at the Riverside, while Sheyi Ojo was also given half an hour, so both men are in contention to start on Tuesday.

Striker Kieffer Moore did not find the net last time out, but he has 15 goals in 29 league games this season and is a certain starter up top.

As for the visitors, they are sweating on the fitness of goalkeeper David Marshall, one of the heroes of Cardiff's promotion campaign in 2012-13.

The Scotland international injured his back against Forest and will be assessed, but it looks like Kelle Roos may have to step in.

Tom Lawrence remains absent for the Rams, who have had a day's more rest than their opponents, while Krystian Bielik and Curtis Davies are also nursing injuries.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Phillips; Morrison, Flint, Nelson; Ng, Vaulks, Ralls, Bennett; Ojo, Moore, Wilson

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Wisdom, Clarke, Buchanan; Bird, Shinnie; Waghorn, Knight, Jozwiak; Kazim-Richards


SM words green background

We say: Cardiff City 2-1 Derby County

Cardiff will be eager to get back to winning ways on Tuesday in order to climb back into the top six, while Derby could do with putting some further distance between themselves and the bottom three.

The Bluebirds have won back-to-back league matches on home soil and we are backing them to make it three in a row in South Wales for the first time since March 2018 with three points here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.


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