Australia will endeavour to march to a simple three points in World Cup 2022 Qualifying when they welcome Vietnam to Melbourne for Thursday's AFC third-round tie.
Graham Arnold's side currently occupy third spot in the section - which would lead to a place in the fourth round - while the visitors enter the contest without a single point to their name.
Match preview
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After navigating the first two rounds of World Cup 2022 Qualifying with ease, Australia have since come unstuck in round three and are facing quite the battle to confirm automatic qualification for the Qatar tournament.
Graham Arnold's side opened Group B with three successive victories, but pitting their wits against the big boys has led to a downturn in fortunes, with Saudi Arabia, Japan and China all taking points off Australia in their last three matches.
The Socceroos were on course to record a slender win over China courtesy of Mitchell Duke's effort before Wu Lei levelled the scores from the penalty spot, and Arnold's side now find themselves in third place - one point behind second-placed Japan and five adrift of leaders Saudi Arabia.
Australia ought to feel confident about their chances of progressing via the intercontinental play-offs should it come to that, but a top-two finish is still firmly within their reach ahead of a crunch battle with Japan in March.
A goalless draw at home to Saudi Arabia back in November ended a 10-game winning streak at home in World Cup Qualifying for Australia, but not since 2008 have the Socceroos suffered defeat on familiar territory at this stage, which does not bode well for their winless opponents.
In stark contrast, Vietnam's World Cup 2022 Qualifying third-round period could not have been a more torrid affair for the world's 98th-ranked nation, who are without a single point let alone a win from their opening six games in Group B.
Vietnam are still in with the slimmest of chances of finishing third and keeping their Qatar hopes alive via the playoff route, but even the most ardent Golden Star Warriors supporter would accept that such an eventuality is nothing more than a mere fantasy at this point.
This week's visitors have scored a group-low four goals and conceded a group-high 12 in the third round so far - letting in an average of two per game - and their title of ASEAN Football Federation champions also came to an end in December's tournament, with Thailand eliminating them in the semi-finals.
Park Hang-seo's side also head into the clash with Australia having conceded three goals in each of their last four World Cup Qualifying games away from home, but the Socceroos could only record a 1-0 win in the first meeting between the two sides thanks to Rhyan Grant's effort.
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Team News
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Australian playmaker Ajdin Hrustic will miss this game through suspension due to an accumulation of bookings, so either Tom Rogic or Aaron Mooy could fill the void behind Duke.
Mathew Ryan and Aziz Behich will reportedly only have one training session with the Socceroos before Thursday's game due to late arrivals from Europe, so there may be scope for uncapped left-back Joel King to earn some minutes here.
Arnold is unlikely to name an inexperienced side given his team's desperate need for points, as Martin Boyle and Mathew Leckie provide some potentially crucial experience in the wide areas.
As for Vietnam, both Tuan Anh Nguyen and Thanh Chung Nguyen are suspended for this fixture after picking up their second yellow cards of the group last time out, although the former is not in the squad for this round of fixtures anyway.
Thanh Chung's spot in the back three could be filled by Dung Tien Bui alongside Thanh Binh Nguyen, as 60-cap centre-back Ngoc Hai Que remains absent.
Striker Cong Phuong Nguyen - the highest goalscorer in the current squad with 11 strikes to his name - was only used as a substitute in the AFF semi-final defeat to Thailand but will expect to return up front here.
Australia possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Grant, Sainsbury, Degenek, King; Irvine, Rogic; Boyle, Mooy, Leckie; Duke
Vietnam possible starting lineup:
Tran; Bui, Thanh Binh, Phong Hong; Ho, Quang Hai, Hoang Duc, Van Thanh; Phan, Cong Phuong, Minh Vuong
We say: Australia 3-0 Vietnam
Australia may have ridden their luck somewhat in their initial meeting with Vietnam, but we do not expect any similar sort of difficulty for the Socceroos this week.
Vietnam's hopes of a third-placed finish are all but dead in the water, and confidence will not be sky-high having ceded their AFF Championship crown, so Arnold's men will expect to march to a routine win here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 48.79%. A win for Vietnam had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Vietnam win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
